- Gut feelings definition
appears quickly in consciousness
- underlying reasons we are not fully aware of
- strong enough to act upon
- Laws in the real world are different from those in the logical idealized world
- Benjamin Franklin's Moral Algebra
when in doubt weigh out the pros and cons of each side by cancelling out the pros that might weigh the same
- Our brain
adaptive forgetting: data is destroyed with the aggregation of information into actionable insights
- We can only decipher the output generated by our brain (a neural network) but cannot decipher the series of logical steps taken to derive this output
- Deliberate thinking about reasons seems to lead to decisions that make us less happy
- Thinking too much can slow down and disrupt performance
The gaze heuristics for catching baseball
- the more complex a species the longer the period of infancy
- The short term memory rule of 7 +/- 2
- Intelligence means making bets, taking risk seeing more than what the eye sees
- Satisfisers versus Maximizers
former is reported to be more optimistic, higher self-esteem and life satisfaction
- Rule: Create scarcity and develop systematically
is a viable alternative in human and organizational development
- Less is more
Stock picking of familiar stocks (partial ignorance) still out perform complex analysis (extensive knowledge)
- Man and his environment
Herbert Simon: A man, viewed as a behaving system, is quite simple. The apparent complexity of his behavior over time is largely a reflection of the complexity in the environment he finds himself
- Steve Jobs, structured work place to maximize chance conversations
- In an uncertain environment good intuitions must ignore information
- Quality heuristics: we equate recognition to quality - Goldstein and Gigerenzer, 2002
why marketing might work in short run despite shitting products
- One-reason decision making - a short cut people use despite official guidelines
implies a fast and frugal decision tree
References
- *Simple rules for a complex world*, Epstein