Learnings on shorting the market during the May 2019 US/China Trade war


  • As with micro-trend, first determine if the root cause of the negative macro trend is structural as opposed to transient
  • When trading on macro trends it is definitely more efficient to utilize industry wide indexes as opposed to individual stocks positions. This is due to the noise within the channel when dealing from micro events.
  • Next step is to consider the exit strategy for an index position

Shorting outcome for 2019 US/China trade war

Below are a list of transactions on the short side of the market with the attempt to ride this negative macro trend.

Positions were picked based on occurrences of large dip scenarios in the prior few weeks.

This strategy under performed when compared against simply shorting the SnP index during the same period.

Related references

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