White house has taken very decision steps since the start of the spread in China to limit the import of viruses within the US
It has followed through with further travel bans of air travel from Europe
The next step is the 15 day shelter at home notices as of 15th March 2020
Its a trade off between financial markets turmoil and health system turmoil
To reduce maximum potential casualties, White house has opted to drag out the time it takes for the virus to spread throughout the community through social distancing measures.
The process can be modified to have each state go through its own bell curve of peaking
When health facilities are not overload, healthcare workers can afford to provide the necessary level of care to patients so as to limit the number of fatalities
In times of crisis, democratic systems after much bickering will align and perform execution with tremendous velocity. Private sectors will get mobilized to deal with the crisis as well.
Crisis are opportunities to remove red tapes and refresh platforms that are otherwise outdated. This makes the system more robust and able to handle future scenarios
Media do not always accurately report what is the official communication from the White House. When possible always seek out the original communication.
Targeting to reopen the country by 12th April 2020, Easter
Stock market price actions
In prior two pandemics (2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1), the height of the shock was experienced during the month of March before a subsequent rebound was observed
Federal reserve announcements of interest rate cuts ironically caused markets to dip
During period of turbulence, euphoria and subsequent price spikes due to government promise of bail out will not be long lasting
Oil is a leading indicator
Percentage coverage of media on pandemic is also a leading indicator of drops in markets
SPY might go through periods of denial before acknowledging pandemic is cause for concern
Gold which is considered a safe haven during time of crisis will dip when traders experiencing margin calls on their equity positions start unloading their gold to fulfill margin calls
US Treasury yield curve will start steepening when Federal reserve starts lowering interest rates and performing quantitative easing
Gold and bond prices decline will quickly follow the steepening of the yield curve.
Global markets will experience sharp retreat as funds exit from global markets for US treasury when steepening compared to negative interest rates worldwide
US dollar exchange rates will start surging as liquidity exit from emerging markets
Execution of fiscal policies will usually lag monetary policies
Share prices levels of directly impact companies can be seen trading at
