Key takeaways from the meaning of vanlife

The Van Life idea seems like an ember that will eventually grow to become like what manifested as the Hippies movement of the 60s, the Burning Man festival and before that the Scouts movement.
One recurring theme observed between Van Life and Burning Man is the notion of “Coming Home”, where man steps away from the artificial construct he spent generations building up to finally return to nature.
Humans in the aggregate do behave somewhat like a self adjusting thermostat forever oscillating between extremes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8dN4jP3OZQ

Related readings:

  • Future Shock, Alvin Toffler
  • Different, Youngme Moon
  • I Ching, the book of changes
  • Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari

Future concerns

One of the primary fear of the future an average man has stems from the “abstract idea” of how physical discomfort would feel like during old age just prior to the point of death and how terrible it might be.
 
This primary fear is the main driver behind the average man’s continued effort to accumulate resources of various forms. It is done with hopes to alleviate that “discomfort” when it does eventually come.
 
The problem with that mode of thinking is the future is unknowable and man ends up wasting his precious limited life span over provisioning, not to mention it’s overall negative impact on the environment.
 
An alternate approach as practiced in various ascetic traditions is to steadily build the ability to keep equanimity at various thresholds of discomfort through daily practice. This curtails over-provisioning , frees up precious time to do more meaningful stuff and is generally good for the environment.
 
Related references:
– Diogenes
– Seneca
– Meditations, Marcus Aurelius
– Vipassana mediation
– TaoDeChing, Lao Tze
– The Tiger’s Cave, Trevor Leggett
– Zen mind, Beginner’s mind, Shinryu Suzuki
– The book of five rings, Musashi

Different by Youngme Moon

Key takeaways

  • Removing an authoritative metric to measure performance invites fresh reinterpretation and creative differentiation
  • Having an authoritative metric in place is the surest way to invite competition and conformity
  • “For the most part, we do not see before we define, we define before we see”  Public Opinion, Walter Lippman
  • In business product categories are very flexible. All it takes is a perceptual shift to transform the consumption behavior of the masses
  • “Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in new information society precisely because there is so much data”, John Naisbitt

Key lessons learned from 2020 coronavirus sell offs – DONT TALK ABOUT TRADING

  • Key weakness of my profile Yang Wood Day Master profile
    • easily confused when provided with too much conflicting social signals
    • slow in decision making process
    • recommendations: avoid unnecessary conversations and stick to simple system that works
  • Do not enter into positions until SPY MACD bullish crossover occurs.
  • Practice “Let’s not talk about trading”
    • When people ask how you pay for your expenses, just reply money from parents.
    • When people send messages about trading related stuff just don’t reply
    • Too many inputs from unqualified personnels creates confusion in the mind leads to bad decision
    • Arguments is a time sink, creates a lot of unnecessary stress, drains will power, emotional and mental strengths. This leads to poor decision making when it matters
    • Wasting time explaining the obvious to people does not lead to me having more money in my pocket whereas giving people wrong info leads to bad relationships later on.
    • Set positions and forget
    • Do not waste time debating about news on social networks. It leads to hurt feels amongst friends and relatives.
    • No point reading news as bulk of the macro signals are already reflected in the prices of index by SPY. It does not generate profit.
    • Don’t attempt to derive satisfaction and self-worth from trading profits. If you feel good now you will probably feel like shit later when profits start diving
    • Do not talk about profits made during trades, makes others who did not make that money feel bad about themselves.
    • Do not talk about losses made during trades, provides others the opportunity to make you feel even worse with their useless feedbacks.

Related references

Thoughts on intuition and logic

The limbic and reptilian parts of the human brain have had more time to evolve. Compared to these two parts, the frontal lobe of the human brain where logic resides is a more recent phenomena. Ironically, the logical functions carried out by this part of the brain, which makes man distinct from other animals, are the ones most easily replicated by machines.

The entire human body, not just the deliberate thinking portion of it, should be considered to be a neural network. Using only the thinking portion of the human body for decision making purposes is sub-optimal. This is especially true for a human that has actively engaged in calibrating his body for a specific purpose. Prime examples are deliberate cultivation and heavy reliance on muscle memory by professional athletics, chefs, actors, music composers and detectives.

Intuitive gut feel can be considered muscle memory cultivated over time for specific functions yet expressed as formalized equations. To free up time, individuals can actively convert what they “intuitively know” into formalized equations and have the corresponding functions delegated to machines. Thereafter they could either further compound the effects of this process by building up muscle memories in other domains or sit by the beach and do nothing.

Humans will always have a role available to play in the future regardless of society’s degree of automation.

Related readings

 

Chat with Quynh on trading

News sources utilized

  • Zacks
  • Motley Fools

Buy rumors and sell on news

  • rumors are not official news but signals that a news might be coming soon
  • continuous upwards movement of share price for few days means news might be announced soon
  • once news is out share price will adjust based on actual numbers

Buy on over reaction to bad news and sell on recovery

  • There is usually overreaction

The dichotomy between privacy and health

1984: Big Brother is Watching
Across multiple literature, its been stated privacy versus health will be one of the primary dichotomy societies around the world will need to juggle with as technological advances are made in the fields of artificial intelligence, communications (surveillance) and medical science (genetic research).
 
What is surprising was the rate at which the Corona pandemic catalyzed this change. In light of this, it is fascinating to observe how different societies position along the spectrum. Some societies has opted for surveillance to the maximum extend possible with current technology while others opted for its polar opposite going to the extend of staging mass protests against it use. 
 

Related readings:

  • The AI Economy, Roger Bootler
  • To Be a Machine, Mark O’Connell
  • Irrational Exuberance, Shiller, Robert J.
  • Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Max Tegmark
  • Mind Children The Future of Robot, Hans Moravec
  • The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil
  • 1984, George Orwell

Thoughts on the nature of framing

Optical illusion of the old lady and young lady

The basis we use for interpreting what is happening our world is through the understanding of our history. History heavily relies on narrative constructs.

The critical flaw with using narration as a tool to understand, encode and communicate what has transpired is it can only support data in a chronological order while reality is inherently chaotic, multi-linear, on occasions non-linear and confounds understanding thus narration. To tell a coherent tale of what has transpired, authors are forced to decide what to include and leave out of the narrative they weave. This phenomena is commonly labelled as the narrative fallacy.

Compound narrative fallacy with a collection of common human cognitive bias such as the framing bias, survivor bias, confirmation bias and consistency bias and you get a recipe for a fragmented society. This is especially more so when you have multiple equally plausible narratives that are diametrically opposed but draw evidences from the same chaotic sample space to reinforce their positions.

The task of deciphering what has transpired becomes even more daunting to the everyday individual with the reintermediation of social platforms as our primary news source. In the days prior, individuals need only rely on one official news source on how to understanding what is happening, usually from their government. Now, individuals are bombard on a daily basis with news sources sponsored by multiple parties with varying interest and agendas. In this day and age, it has become crucial for individuals to exercise critical thinking.

Some final food for thoughts:

  • Iran is portrayed as an evil country in American media
  • America is portrayed as the devils incarnate in Iranian media
  • China is portrayed as an evil country in American media
  • America is portrayed as an evil country in Chinese media
  • Why is it that the winners are always as good and righteous in any battle?
  • “If God’s on our side, who the hell could be on theirs?” Private Reiben in Saving Private Ryan.

Thought provoking artifacts

Conflicting frames about Bills Gates

Bill Gates the evil person
Bill and Melinda Gates the philanthropists

Conflicting frames about the 2020 CoronaVirus

Conflicting frames about global warming

Related references:

Continue reading “Thoughts on the nature of framing”

Predator’s Ball by Connie Bruck

  • no matter how much research you done regarding a stock you don’t have a contract what the future price should be
  • with high yield bond there is a contract for a certain price in a future, if you are correct about the calculation, you will be correct about your yield
  • bargain price: liquidation price 75cents on the dollar buy at 20 cents
  • when you are not a big established investment firm like Lehmen brothers, you have no franchise to protect. You are free to go the unconventional route for potential outsized returns
  • great ideas are born bad. Its easy to make your way to a great idea from crazy outrageous ones than cautious and sensible ones. Investment bankers by default filter out the crazy outrageous ones.
  • Contrarian thinkers need to train themselves to see things via unconventional routes
  • ways to structure a bond
    • give money back sooner
    • give higher interest rates
    • give more stock
    • give stocks cheap
  • It is easier for corporation to pay interest which is tax deductible than dividends which are not
  • Bonds offer process
    • first tier  high rollers offer liquidity get to buy at cheaper price and exit earlier
    • second tier payers, with franchise to protect, who want to avoid stigma of being junk bond buyers will come in later at more expensive price and exit later.
  • Successful leverage buyout scenario: after buy out use cashflow from business to pay off the junk bonds thus deleverage the business
  • Mutual fund arbitrage: compare value of underlying portfolio and stock price
  • If you are right about a company being undervalued and it is willing to put itself up for sale, there will be buyers
  • Poison pill: defense mechanism against corporate take overs. When would be acquirers crosses threshold of ownership, existing shareholders are given extravagant rights rights making it less desirable as take over target
  • Michael Milken:
    • perception versus reality, see what the world could not.
    • Vision is Strength.
    • capital is abundant, vision is scarce.
    • excess capital is not strength but opportunity for weakness
    • capital put in the hands of someone with vision will result in drastically different results.
    • return of the owner manager as opposed to the corporate manager
    • by-pass the China wall principle where companies try to isolate the deal making and arbitrage departments
    • knows many industry in depth

Related references