Fascinating AB testing observed on the entire world’s population by major news networks.
Barely 72 hours after the announcement of phase 1 trade deal, its accompanying mass euphoria and surge in world markets, the almost same exact photo with some slight changes in copyrighting and background color is released into production.
It will be fascinating to observe the world’s reaction to this new AB year variant that just got released and the corresponding market price levels.
If the issue of aging population is an inevitable affliction of all industrialized countries and majority of countries will become industrialized within the next 30 years, then we should be expecting our population to collapse by 2050. Based on this premise rather than being worried that majority of workers will get replaced by Robots and made irrelevant, we should instead be worried that robots are not replacing tasks handled by forthcoming retirees fast enough,
Risk versus uncertainty
- Risk can be mathematically modeled to yield a probability
- uncertainty cannot be mathematically modeled
Conditions for quality data
Why google’s Search data is better than Facebook profile data
- subject feels she has privacy privacy
- subject feels she is not judged
- subject sees tangible benefit from being honest
The hedgehog versus the fox
- The hedgehog approaches reality through a narrative/ideology while the fox thinks in terms of probabilities
- The hedgehog goes very deep in an area while the fox employs multiple different models
- The fox is a better forecaster than the hedgehog
- The fox is more tolerant of uncertainty
- More data does not yield better results and predictions
- Deciding the right kind of data from the abundance available
- To do prediction it is important to start from intuition and to keep model simple
- qualitative data should be weighted and considered
- Be self aware of your own biases
- Similarity scores – clustering in Netflix and baseball
- Be wary of confirmation biases
- Be wary of overfitting using small sample size – Tokyo earthquakes and global warming
- Correlation does not equal causation
- short hand heuristics to reduce the computational space – for example chess
- Irrational exuberance, Robert Shiller
- Expert political judgement, Philip E. Tetlock
- Future shock, Alvin and Heidi Toffler
- Principles of forecasting, J Scott Armstrong
- Predicting the unpredictable, Hough
Grepsr is increasingly being used in the work place by Quid.
Business people that don’t know how to code use Grepsr to pull data.
There is increasing demand for DIFFs to identify thematic trends. Themes are extracted from articles through the use of NLTK.
The proliferation of machine learning libraries and the maturing of the semantic web is democratizing the access to insights.
The legalization of online sports betting has open a fertile ground for this trend towards democratization.
NBA basketball predictive modeling should be done at the players level instead of the team level as the data becomes too lossy.
The odds of sports books at the opening lines is to encourage even bets on both side. The odds of the closing lines is a weighted average of bets (signals) from the crowd.