The level of auto traffic along the Cedar Street, Pecos Texas is a very clear proxy on the health status of the US Oil industry.
Factors negatively impacting economic activities in the area:
US Elections: Oil companies operating in area put activities on hold awaiting for forthcoming mandate
Holidays: Demand for oil drops
COVID pandemic: Demand for oil drops
Responsiveness of lagging indicators:
Lag time between events and lagging indicators within the region is typically 24 hours
Layoffs can happen within 24 hours of environment triggers
Rapid hiring can happen within 24 hours of environment trigger
On occasions, rapid hiring and layoffs could happen simultaneously in different sectors
On mornings during times of Economic boom in the Oil industry, the Pilot center across the street could be observe lined with trucks rushing to fuel up as they go about transporting out their cargo to their destinations.
On such days, the empty parking lot in front of Custom Mufflers Tire Repair center could be seen filled up with trucks getting their wheels serviced.
Investment Funds market exposure strategies can be categorized primarily into three types.
Type 1: Long only strategy: funds that buy and hold positions.
Type 2: Short only strategy: funds that primarily borrow and short shares
Type 3: Market neutral strategy: funds that hold half their position in long and half their positions in short attempting to gain from some form of arbitrage between performers and losers.
To increase profit funds would typically be leveraged. Levels of leverage is dependent on how aggressive each individual fund is. Long Term Capital Management for example, a fund that went bankrupt in 1998, was leveraged up to 20X for some of its positions.
Depressed share prices due to the unwinding of long positions by Type 3 lead to a follow on cascading effect where Type 1 had to unwind their leveraged long position.
This large scale unwinding activity could be inferred from the inverted yield curve observed on 31st Jan 2021. This inversion could also be interpreted as funds opting to maintain liquidity levels by moving heavily into positions like short term US Treasury and cash as they await for the market gyration to settle.
Across multiple literature, its been stated privacy versus health will be one of the primary dichotomy societies around the world will need to juggle with as technological advances are made in the fields of artificial intelligence, communications (surveillance) and medical science (genetic research).
What is surprising was the rate at which the Corona pandemic catalyzed this change. In light of this, it is fascinating to observe how different societies position along the spectrum. Some societies has opted for surveillance to the maximum extend possible with current technology while others opted for its polar opposite going to the extend of staging mass protests against it use.
The AI Economy, Roger Bootler
To Be a Machine, Mark O’Connell
Irrational Exuberance, Shiller, Robert J.
Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Max Tegmark
Good news reporting should seeks to inform rather than sensationalize with attention grabbing headlines. Its easy to appear data driven but still be misleading if you do not use the proper frame for understanding the numbers
On investment bank predictions
When on the receiving end of predictions made by external parties it is important to understand the underlying agenda they are trying to achieve. When examined thoroughly, predictions made by investment banks are so bad and contradictory, they should just stop making public declarations.
However if taking into account their objective is not to inform but to incite a trading decision by their clients so as to make a commission or offload losing positions on their trading books, it makes perfect sense.
Liar’s poker: Rising through the wreckage on Wall Street, Micheal Lewis
A company is only likely to go bankrupt if its creditors recalls debts and it is not able to pay back.
In the event of a major wide spread disaster and there is no one around to take advantage of it, it is unlikely the creditors recall debts
creditors of airlines would more likely want to have all their clients continue generating revenue with the planes to pay off debt than to foreclose of them and take back planes which are at that point worthless inventory for them
Labor unions will not want to have all their union members laid off, they will likely go into negotiations to deal with salary issues.
Ships of cruises are likely to deteriorate fast and require Capex to upkeep
Credit lines and payment schedule can always be renegotiated if impact is industry wide
If creditors are not willing to recall debts, then what would be the cause of bankruptcy? Beware of fake news that preach doom and gloom with no underlying basis
If you bought too early into the dip and you are more than half way into the dip might as well hold on for the recovery. Trying to exit too late into the dip will only cause more losses to be unnecessarily incurred.
Oil specialists are either producers or consumers, it is hard to determine the demand unless you are an insider
Wait till all the bad news are out and sentiment has turned before entering into position. Its ok to only go into position after the company share price has advanced 100% from its lowest levels.