Key takeaways from dinner with Jerry and Johnson at the Rosewood hotel

Types of money making opportunities

it is very important to know the type of opportunity you are tackling and to employ the right strategy. Opportunity shifts overtime between categories

  • fast money
  • slow money
  • big money
  • small money

Types of abilities

  • professional knowledge, intellect
  • social capital
  • Must important: steadfast perseverance

Warnings

  • when dealing with opportunities pick your battles and don’t spread too thin
  • focus on the core and do it well

Parameters to optimize

  • Time
  • Effort
  • Quality

 

Key takeaway from “Connected” by Nicholas A. Christakis

 

  • Our ties to others affect emotions, sex, health, politics, money, evolution and technology
  • Acts of aggression typical set off a cascade of killings
    • morality resides in groups instead of individuals

 Insights

  • the particular pattern of ties are more important than the individuals
  • different patterns facilitate the individuals in the groups
  • structures are more important than shared traits of individuals
  • we influence how densely connected we are
  • core discussions network decreases as we age
  • needs tending and should not be taken for granted
  • our mirror neurons gets affected by our network

Principles

  • emergent properties
    • inherent in the interactions and interconnection of the parts
  • Rule 5 – social proofing from 5 people is as effective as any number above that
  • 6 degree of connectedness
  • 3 degrees of influence
    • network instability inhibits 4th degrees
  • Situational inequality
    • where you are in the network matters
    • affects if you are healthier or richer than others
    • even if you have no control

On Mating

  • your network will find a mate for you
    • being in a network with more men than women makes it harder to find a partner and leads to a shorter life
  • Much easier to go for a guy that other women in your network are going for
    • assessment is already done by others
  • Men bring money and resources to the table
  • Women bring emotional/social support
  • friendship network and mating network are very different

On Friendship

  • Habits / behavior spread – culture
    • obesity
    • suicide
  • can be attributed to mirror neurons
  • behavior of female is more contagious than the behavior of male
  • people who have five friends who know one another has a different genetic makeup than a person with five friends who do not know one another
    • religion is the opiate of disconnected people

On Health

  • Targeting folks at the central of a network to treat an epidemic is more effective than treating those at the fringes in the case of aids

On Politics

  • Being in a politically active network makes you more likely to vote even in they support the opposing politician
  • peer pressure
  • voting makes no logical sense, since your impact is statistically insignificant

Mathematics

  • Contagion goes through a pattern called Levy Flight
    • imagine a seagull
    • Mathematicians
      • Pierre Levy
      • Benoit Mandelbrot
  • Weighted average of the crowd is not that inaccurate

Weak ties versus Strong ties

  • Strong ties help dissemination within networks
  • Weak ties act as bridge between different networks
    • useful for search large areas of networks
    • people with lots of weak ties get more frequently sought out for advice and given opportunities
    • they become central to the overall network
    • minority power effect – a small group of influentially positioned individuals can consistently get their way
  • it appears we often start our search for information two or three degrees away to make sure we learn something new

On language

  • makes it easier to interact with people as types rather than as individuals

Online networks

  • roles
    • Co-operators
    • free riders
    • punishers
      • manages public good versus private good

Key takeaways from dinner with Josh

Hedgefund

  • CHTR – good company to buy 18% YoY revenue growth over the next 3 years
    • friend jay buys on the dip in the stock market

Machine Learning companies

  • Quids engineering team
    • majority efforts focused on DevOps
    • been losing engineers a lot lately
      • main reason is because they feel not enough investment in core technology
    • Core engineering tasks
      • zero downtime deployment
      • Monitor service to expose API calls
      • elastic search
      • daily caching of data from LexisNexis into S3 in case elastic search goes down
    • uses IBM named entity extraction for news article
      • Data not even that good
    • users trying to do search for articles related to company names
      • wants to look into knowledge graph to help auto complete. Talked with DiffBot
      • Not sure why not use in house entity database
    • User profile: digital marketers trying to do competitive analysis
      • search and curate articles about company into clusters
    • He thinks they should focus on a venture arm that invest in companies instead
    • CEO is strong business person and CTO ex very technical guy
      • prefers the external solution procurement approach instead of building critical solutions in house
      • technical person does the 3rd party solution procurement
      • they even talked with DiffBot
    • Targets for this year: wants to focus on building out targeted interfaces for specific personas like marketers
    • revenue
      • 50% consulting
      • 50% SAAS service
      • 30 million USD last year
    • feela could do so much more with the data than just clobbering on third party solutions targeted at existing use cases
    • marketing team not that good
    • sales team doing acquisition via enterprise sales approach
    • just rolled out solution similar to what Vincent company is doing

On Sales

  • Being able to define the business case really fast to help frame the cost of the problem for the prospect
  • sell a solution to the prospect for a lesser amount than the cost they are currently incurring.

Takeaways from conversations observed for the week

  • Ved and Tim
    • Abstract terms like simplicity can get interpretated differently
    • Simplicity could mean minimal number of clicks
    • Simplicity could mean the look and feel is something I am most familiar with
  • Regina
    • To keep the tendency to do everything yourself in check
    • much better to learn from the mistake of others
    • find a group of people that are actively learning how to solve the pricing problem and learn their lessons. It’s cheaper
    • personal branding is important. Not being taken seriously results in lack of access to resources in times of need

Relevant resources

  • The design of everyday things
  • Dont make me think

Phases of starting up a new product

This graph was originally referenced from article written by Casey Winters. While his article is primarily focused on how to improve the way growth teams operate, it also documents the phases a product will necessarily need to go through.

The sections in red are traditionally handled by the following roles:

  • Founder in a startup in pre-product market fit phase
  • Product Manager in a mid-size startup in growth phase
  • User Researcher or Trained Anthropologies in a relatively mature company

Steve Jobs in between the lines on user research and market trends

On Market Insights and User Research

Contrary to popular beliefs, if you listened very carefully between the lines of this 1 hour long lecture with the MBA students in MIT, Jobs did spend a lot of time and energy deeply listening to and understanding customer needs.

It would not have been possible to gain the insight and develop that very informed go to market strategy otherwise

Key lessons on building teams:

  • Take a longer time horizon on people
  • Resist the urge to do things yourself, when someone on your team screws up, think about how you could train him to improve
  • It is very easy to hire people to do things, it is very hard to find smart people to tell you the way things are supposed to be done
  • The really good people usually take around 1 year and a half to hire

On Timing

There is always that 5 year window where the market is not really ready yet, where you need to spend a lot of time and effort to push the window open. Beyond that 5 year window, you have around a 5 year period to exploit the market before the next technology curve comes about.

If you hang around MIT or other research labs, you can kind feel it in your bones. Different pieces of technology that come together to make what was not possible before possible. Based on historical observation these things tend to converge in clumps. They are not linear.

The key challenge now for computing is the two segments of conflicting needs. The  need for portability versus the need for power. Morse Law and technology innovation makes it inevitable that they converge.

Reflections on the decentralized multi-sided market place – GetData.IO

The beginning

The concept of GetData.IO was first conceived back in November 2012. I was rewriting one of my side project (ThingsToDoSingapore.com) in NodeJS back then. Part of the rewrite required that I wrote up two separate crawlers each for a different site which I was getting data for.

Very soon after I was done with the initial rewrite, I was once again compelled to write a third crawler when I wanted to buy some stocks on the Singapore stock exchange. I realized while the data for the shares were available on the site, they were not presented in a way that facilitated my decision making process. In addition to that, the other part of the data I needed were presented on a separate site and unsurprisingly not in the way I needed.

I was on my way to write my fourth crawler when it occurred to me, if I structured my code by cleanly decoupling the declaration from underlying implementation details, it is possible to achieve a high level of code re-use.

Two weekends of tinkering and frenzied coding later, I was able to complete the first draft of the Semantic Query Language and the engine that would interpret this query language. I was in love. Using just simple JSON, it allowed anybody the ability to declare the desired data from any parts of web. This includes data scattered across multiple pages on the same site or data scattered across multiple domains which could be joined using unique keywords.

The Journey

Five years have past since, during this time, I brought this project through an incubator in Singapore with my ex-co-founder, tore out and rewritten major parts of the code-base that did not scale well, banged my head countless times on the wall  in frustration due to problems with the code and with product market fit, watched a bunch of well-funded entrants came and went. To be honest, quite a few times I threw in the towel. Always, the love for this idea would call out to me and draw me back to it. I picked up the towel and continued ploughing.

It’s now June 2018. Though it has taken quite a while, I am now here in the Bay Area, the most suitable home for this project given to the density of technological startups in this region. My green card was finally approved last month. I have accumulated enough runway to allow my full attention on this project for the next 10 years. Its time to look forward.

The vision

The vision of this project is a multi-sided market place enabled by a Turing complete Semantic Query Language. The Semantic Query Language will be interpreted and executed upon by a fully decentralized data harvesting platform that will the capacity to gather data from more than 50% of the world’s websites on a daily basis.

Members can choose to participate in this data sharing community by playing one or more of the 4 roles:

  • Members who need data
  • Members who maintain the data declarations
  • Members’ who will run instances of the Semantic Query Language interpreter on their servers to mine for data
  • Member’s who sell their own proprietary data

From this vantage point, given its highly decentralized nature, it feels appropriate to deploy the use of block chains. The final part that needs to be sorted out prior to the deployment of blockchain to operate in full decentralized mode is figure out the “proof of work”.

Operations available in other database technologies will get ported over where appropriate as and when we encounter relevant use cases surfaced by our community members.

Why now and how is it important?

More as I dwell in this space, I see very clearly why it is only going to become increasingly important to have this piece of infrastructure in place. There are namely 3 reasons for this.

Leveling the playing field

The next phase of our computing will rely very heavily on machine learning. It is a very data intensive activity. Given that established data siren’s like Facebook, Google, Amazon and Microsoft have over the past years aggregated huge tons of data, this have given them a huge unfair advantage which might not necessarily be good for the eco-system. We need to level the playing field by making it possible for other startups to gain easy access to training data for their machine learning work.

Concerns about data ownership

GDPR is a cumulation of concerns of data ownership that has been building for the past 10 years. People will increasing want to establish ownership and control over their own data, independent of the data siren’s use to house them. This means a decentralized infrastructure which people can trust to manage their own data.

Increasing world-wide need for computing talents

Demand for engineering talent will only continue to increase as the pervasiveness of computing in our lives increase. The supply of engineering talents does not seem like it will be catching up and short fall is projected to continue widening till 2050. A good signal is the increasingly high premium paid to engineering talents in the form of salaries over the recent years. It’s just plain stupidity as a civilization to devote major portions of this precious engineering resource to the writing and rewriting of web crawlers for the same data sources over and over again. Their time should be freed up to do more important things.

The first inning

Based on historical observation, I believe we are on the cusp of the very first inning in this space. A good comparison to draw upon is the early days of online music streaming.

Napster versus the music publishers is similar to how the lay of the land was back 5 years ago when Craigslist was able to successfully sue 3Tap.

Last year, LinkedIn lost the law suit against folks who were scraping public data. This is a very momentous inflection point in this space. Even the government is starting to the conclusion that public data is essentially public and Data Siren’s like any of the big Tech should have no monopoly over data that essentially belongs to the users who generated them.

Drawing further upon on the music industry analogy, the future of this space should look like how Spotify and ITunes operate in the modern day online music scene

What about recumbents?

Further readings

Evening reflections on the importance of story telling

If you want to scale beyond your own physical efforts, you will need to be able to convince others the importance of what you are doing. When you are successful at that you will be able to elicit their muscles to work for your own cause.

To be able to elicit their muscles, you will need to be able to tell a good story. If you read the book titled “Sapiens” by Yuval Harari, story telling is a technological innovation by the human species that has enabled large numbers of people to coordinate their efforts based around a single endeavor. It is one of the main causes for the human species’ predominance in our environment.

This innovation is enabled by our limbic brain which understands things based on narratives. Compelling narratives elicit an emotional response resulting in human motivation and corresponding action.

As a product manager working on the core product as opposed to growth, the primary focus is the narrative as opposed to the metrics.

The primary job of the executive is to “fight” for resources to further his agenda. The way he does so is by telling a compelling narrative to the company.

As opposed to a demagog, a good product manager tells a story, backs it up with data and delivers his promise. The demagog gets his resources by telling a story but never delivers anything of substance.

Learn to tell a story. That is a very important skill set acquire if you haven’t done so.

Inspired by conversations with Ved.

Related readings

Keys take aways from “Be Slightly Evil”

  • The more universal truths you uncover about the world, the less the number of moral opinions you will need
  • In life, you will eventually be forced to decide between being somebody or doing something
  • The unreasonable person adapts surrounding conditions to himself
  • The straight path in your head turns to spaghetti in the real world vice versa
  • The straight and narrow path grounded in truth seeking is the faster road to meaningful destinations
  • Power handed to the untrained mind leads inevitably to mental damage
  • The ability to see reality as it really is, in minimally deluded ways, leads inevitably to the earning of authority
  • A CEO’s job is to interpret external realities for a company, A.G. Lafley
    • survive a lack of incoming empathy
    • generate a positive atmosphere and empathy for others under your “information protection” umbrella
    • A startup team of two is better than solo entrepreneurs due to the sharing of “information parenthood”
  • Idealism believes in change and creates believers who don’t change whereas the opposite is true
    • The idealist goes into Zen Retreat and remains unchanged after he is done
    • The realist starts a business and is forced to change
  • Path to freedom
    • Integrating the self (addiction) and the shadow (aversions) to cover your whole personality
    • Myer Briggs cognitive function
      • first four functions represent your self
      • last four functions represent your shadow – usually triggered by stress
  • Status
    • If status doesn’t matter to you, it becomes available to you as a tool to control those whom status does matter
    • consciously cultivate away this felt need
  • The easiest way to figure out someone is to look at the information they choose to consume
  • Handling information
    • Truth telling
      • requires you to calmly separate your feelings from facts and tell yourself the truth before you tell others
      • cursing and candor both reflect an inability to bear the stress of being otherwise
    • Cold blooded listening
      • listen for the data behind heated words
      • don’t take what you hear  about your personality as worth responding to
      • freely draw your own conclusion about the data received
    • Dissemination
      • the larger the group the fewer the key beliefs allowed to be conveyed
      • at the level of human civilization use extremely simple but very fertile fill-in-the-blanks messaging
  • Handling negotiation
    • most work is done away from the actual negotiating table
    • Discovery pre-work conversation to tease out what people know and the trust relationship
    • the more there is that mutually greed upon, the less there is to negotiate
    • ignore sunk cost
  • Choose to be effective instead of being liked
  • On money
    • aim to be anti-fragile
    • even millionaires are stuck in the psychology that the money is transient
    • salary men are stuck in the illusion that the pay check will extend indefinitely into the future

References

  • The fighter who changed the art of war, Boyd
  • 48 Laws of Power
  • The Alchemist, Paul Coelho
  • The Redemptive Self, McAdam
  • The origins of political order, Francis Fukuyama
  • Yes, Minister
  • Glengarry Glen Ross

Learnings from chat with Ved

On Market Places

  • The main challenge of scaling UpWork is the variability of the service
    • Lyft and Uber’s model – getting you from point A to B
    • UpWork connects you with contractor who does consulting work and the quality varies based on service provider
  • Scaling a market place that is digital is easier than scaling one that is service based
    • border crossing is performed easily
    • Uber spends a lot of money entering into each new territory because it is  building a new market place each time
  • Performing Market Segmentation helps understand which segment is growing
  • Growth is the new marketing
    • marketers which are focus on traditional channels of marketing will have a hard time transitioning to digital channels
    • 1st principal approach to funnel analysis and conversion rates optimization
      • understand where they are dropping
      • understand the user psychology behind why they are dropping off

Elderly-care marketplace

  • Founding approach
    • raised money from ex-colleagues
    • founded team with 2 ex-colleagues
  • Reason for starting elderly care marketplace
    • Did a bottoms up analysis – more folks listing tasks to be done for elderly on UpWork
    • Did a top down analysis – aging baby boomer
    • UpWork is focused on the digital tasks while elderly care is an offline tasks
  • Reasons for shutting down
    • well funded entrants
    • real service is harder to scale than digital service
    • quality variability of service provider
    • difficulty in quantifying trust that can be translated from one customer to another – its a highly personal service