Google wave, the stanford model works, Serendipity

Seems like Google is coming up with a new web 2.0 platform again, this time specifically targeted at communications online.

It works pretty much like the winword document in the gmail except that this time you could also rewind time and see what was actually being written or edited at specific time intervals.

A video goes on to show that this algorithm has been originally been an area of academic research for the past 10 years before finally being commercialized in the form of Google Wave recently.

Seems like the Stanford model is working very nicely over in the States. What started as research in academies upon maturity gets rolled out commercially as spin offs.

The advantage that Google has is that fact that the whole company started out via this model as well. They are experienced in this.

In Singapore we do have something like this, but it seems owing to the general risk aversive culture of the place, this model is not taking off as well. Hey look, even my dad and mom has been nagging at me to get a stable job instead of constantly going through this process of trail and error that is inherent in technological ventures.

But hey no way am I going to call it quits that easily. I am still surviving so far am I not?

The other thing also is the lack of funding for start ups. Ironically, while lots of funds have been put in place to support start ups, fund managers are not really willing to seed start ups unless they are really confidant that their business model will be commercially viable.

Who’s to be sure anyway? Half of the really cool technologies around that were thought to have the potential to make a big bang when they hit the market never really did when they finally did arrive. Others that were thought to be flops magically succeeded at becoming dominant features on the internet without much explanation.

It is like choosing to play safe in an arena where the way to success contradicts the idea of playing safe. Hence most of these public funds get squandered off by companies who are good with paperwork to do stuff that is not aligned with the main objectives for the existence of these funds. The model is just not working.

Face it, success usually requires a certain amount of serendipity and the thing is such a thing is usually hard to predict. Mostly we are in the hands of God. It is like a leap of faith.

Kudos to that.

Owned by the Web

Seems like second joint on the fourth finger on my right hand is starting to ache lately. Perhaps i have been spending too long a time with my fingers on the keyboard of late.

Funny seems like I have been using more keyboard than the pen recently, considering the fact that majority of my time is spent on the web and in front of the computer more than anything else.

Ten years ago when the internet first came into Singapore. Life was so different. And then all of a sudden before you know it. Boom! We have all been taken over by the web. The internet and computer is like a black swan. Who would have known we would be living our lives the way we are living today back ten years ago.

One can never really predict the future accurately that is a fact.

Success needs no explanation and Failures have no excuses

I was going through the blog by Chris Anderson the author of the long tail in that blog he was commenting on the recent crash of one of the new comer Newspaper companies Nyhedsavisen to the iceland market owned by Skype Investor Morten Lund.

What previously was a perfectly planned attempt at out competiting all other newspaper companies in Iceland through an extreme price war strategy exploded in the face. A black swan (unknown unknown) was not accounted for. Morten Lund was blinded sided. Who would have known that the economic recession would hit the world end of 2008, thus affecting advertising revenue of all newspaper companies and causing the Nyhedsavisen to scrap bottom in terms of its cash flow.

What followed thereafter was a whole series of attempts by Morten Lund to dissolve the company in exchange for enough funds to pay off his debtors and employees. He will be down for a while I think before he comes back up into the radar again.

This scenario does sound familiar. After having read the book that cousin Johson recommended me, I seem to see Black Swans everywhere and also the Grey Swans. More than that I have experienced first hand how a business model when not structured properly to mitigate the risk of potential negative black swans could blow up in your face in a very terrible way.

Lesson learned: Always be extremely pessimistic when trashing out a business model. Always think of the worst case scenario that could happen. Once done, with your very best effort mitigate your risk and expose yourself to as much positive Black Swans as possible. Thereafter go with faith and have God for guidance.