Autonomous AI – Tesla self driving, Google self driving
Zhong Guan Cun – Beijing
State of the Union
We are in the stage of implementation/application as opposed to RnD
having access to more data is more important than have expertise to do more RnD
having solid AI engineers is more important than AI researchers
We are still far from general AI
maybe work of strong AI algorithms engineers
Key differences between eco-systems
Silicon Valley businesses are mission and core values driven while Chinese businesses are pragmatically focused on profitability.
Silicon Valley businesses stay in bits and binaries offloading the brick and mortar to external vendors vendors while Chinese businesses extend their business model into the brick and mortar (online to offline)
Silicon valley prefers one size fit all strategy, Chinese businesses utilized localized solutions often investing/acquiring in local startups
Americans treat search engines like Yellow Pages (come and leave fast) while Chinese treat search engines like shopping mall (come to linger around long)
Silicon Valley is adversed to copying preferring to be unique Chinese business copy the heck out of each other
Abundant data – quality and quantity aided by their online to offline initiatives
AI friendly policy environment – strong emphasis by Chinese government
Hardware manufacturing know how – Shen Zhen
unparalleled supply chain flexibility – XiaoMi
Silicon Valley Advantage
Microchip manufacturing know-how
Trends within the Chinese eco-system
Darwinian eco-system has lead to extreme levels of competition
Chinese companies have already moved past the stage of clone Silicon Valley business models
Businesses innovate to build a defensive moat around themselves. Local businesses have advantage, with no timezone differences to deal with, decision making is relatively faster.
Online to offline
an essential ingredient to building strategic moats
caused the decline of cash use
Chinese government information systems will be able to leap frog US government information systems
Google – impeccable safety
Tesla / China – trial by fire
key to winning the Autonomous AI race
is the bottleneck technology (Silicon Valley) or policy (China)?
having cheap labor is no longer going to be a source of advantage in a world heavily powered by automaton. Developing countries hoping to employ this well tested strategy to progress will not be able to do so anymore
Estimated 60% potential job loss worldwide barring policy interventions
Job loss probability assessment
environment – unstructured versus structure
tasks nature – level of dexterity versus high dexterity
social – high versus low
cognitive – optimization based versus creativity/strategy based
AI replacement approach
single tasks approach
ground up rethink re-imagination
A population of irrelevant (no longer employable) as opposed to unemployed
Tackling Key concerns
Silicon valley – reduce, retrain and redistribute
Kai Fu Lee – stipends for care, service, education
Humans freed up from repetitive tasks can now focus on becoming more human oriented
www.Arvix.org – an online repository of scientific papers
The launching of Libra Token will allow large swath of people access to banking
It will also allow corporations with a huge stock pile of cash the access to alternate forms of investment
Libra currency liquidity
Every Libra token that gets created is backed by a reserve of real assets. Close examination of partner balance sheet figures shows approximately USD148 billion dollars of cash and equivalent available for deployment right out the gates.
Libra social impact
One of Libra’s goals is to provide banking access to segments of the world’s population that don’t. Close examination of partners’ reach to this segment of the world shows 7.9million people. This is not including the 204 million African Internet Users on Facebook.
The average man eats, sleeps, shits and reproduce.
When presented with environment stimulus that signals more of the above, his brain emits dopamine which elicits are warm fuzzy sensation in his body which he interprets as pleasant.
When presented with environment stimulus that signals less of the above, his brain emits adrenaline which elicits muscular tension and heat in various parts of his body which he interprets as unpleasant.
Physics as the upper bound constrain for economic activities
Economic activity is what man as a collective organism engages in as it goes about fulfilling its above stated needs.
A quantum leap in economic activity is only possible when there is significant break through in the field of physics.
A large increase in numeric valuation of such economic activities without corresponding increase in actual physical throughput volume will result in either an inflation or a subsequent correction.
Characterization of economic activities
Aerobic economic activity is when the environment remains at equilibrium during energy extraction for the above stated needs.
Anaerobic economic activity is when the environment equilibrium is disturbed during energy extraction for the above stated needs.
Framing as a high level principle
He who controls the frame determines what goes within it.
The jug shapes the water.
The player controlling the outer edges of the Othello board generally wins the game
The country which controls the currency for all international commerce control the direction and level of cross border commercial activities.
US controls the global USD supply which majority of foreign economic activities and debts are denominated in. US controls the future economic outputs creditors will receive in the future.
Major creditors for US debts like China and Russia are moving towards Gold as the denominator.
A framework Guo Jia used to assess Cao Cao’s strength versus Yuan Shao’s strength during the period of the three kingdom. This is an alternative measure to the modern day GDP measure which has been documented to be in use by the Chinese CCP government.
Advice to Cao Cao
Yuan Shao is overmuch devoted to ceremony and deportment; while you are sympathetic and natural; this is an excellence in conduct.
He is antagonistic and drives; you are conciliatory and lead; so you have the advantage of popular approval.
For many years the government has been lax, and he makes it more so; you strive vigorously after efficiency; this is the excellence of able administration.
He is outwardly liberal but grudging at heart, and too given to nepotism; you appear exacting, but you understand and use people after their ability; this is the advantage of correct appreciation.
He is a visionary but lacking in decision; you are a man of prompt decision and direct action; this is an advantage in policy.
He loves to gather about him people of renown; you treat people as you find them regardless of their reputation; this is where you excel in moral virtue.
He is compassionate to those at hand, but careless about those out of sight; your care is all-embracing; this is where you excel in humanity.
He lends a ready ear to calumny and is misled; you may be flooded with evil counsel, but you preserve independence; this is where you excel in perspicacity.
His sense of right and wrong is confused; your appreciation is accurate and clear; this is where you excel in administrative capacity.
He loves the make-believe force, but is ignorant of military essentials; you would overcome with far inferior numbers as you possess military genius; this is where you excel in war.