Man as an automaton
The average man eats, sleeps, shits and reproduce.
When presented with environment stimulus that signals more of the above, his brain emits dopamine which elicits are warm fuzzy sensation in his body which he interprets as pleasant.
When presented with environment stimulus that signals less of the above, his brain emits adrenaline which elicits muscular tension and heat in various parts of his body which he interprets as unpleasant.
Physics as the upper bound constrain for economic activities
Economic activity is what man as a collective organism engages in as it goes about fulfilling its above stated needs.
A quantum leap in economic activity is only possible when there is significant break through in the field of physics.
A large increase in numeric valuation of such economic activities without corresponding increase in actual physical throughput volume will result in either an inflation or a subsequent correction.
Characterization of economic activities
Aerobic economic activity is when the environment remains at equilibrium during energy extraction for the above stated needs.
Anaerobic economic activity is when the environment equilibrium is disturbed during energy extraction for the above stated needs.
Framing as a high level principle
He who controls the frame determines what goes within it.
The jug shapes the water.
The player controlling the outer edges of the Othello board generally wins the game
The country which controls the currency for all international commerce control the direction and level of cross border commercial activities.
US controls the global USD supply which majority of foreign economic activities and debts are denominated in. US controls the future economic outputs creditors will receive in the future.
Major creditors for US debts like China and Russia are moving towards Gold as the denominator.
2018 Oct / Dec
During the period of Dec 2019, the SPY index ranged between
- 3rd Oct 2019 – USD 291.72
- 24th Dec 2019 – USD 234.34
The steep decline in share price can be attributed to the ongoing trade war wage by the Trump administration and the expected Federal Reserve rate hike. The decline attributions are as follows:
- Trump administration
- USD 291.72 – USD265.37
- 3rd Oct 2019 – 13th Dec 2019
- decline of 9.03% off of USD291.72
- Federal reserve rate hike
- USD265.37 – USD234.34
- 13th Dec 2019 – 24th Dec 2019
- decline of 10.63% off of USD291.72
2019 May / June
During the period of May and June 2019, the SPY index ranged between
- 3rd May 2019 – USD 294.03
- 3rd June 2019 – USD 274.57
The steep decline in share price can be attributed to the two front trade war wage by the Trump administration which caused a 6.61% price decline
Of the recovery that occurred after 3rd June 2019, the following parties could be attributed
- Federal reserve
- USD274.57 – USD 287.65
- June 3 2019 – June 7 2019
- 4.76% recovery off of USD274.57
- Trump administration
- USD 287.65 – USD 292.32
- June 10th 2019 – June 18th 2019
- 1.70% recovery off of USD274.57
While both the Government administration and the Federal reserve have observed impact on the SnP index, it is observed the Federal reserve has a slightly higher level of impact.
- Oct/Dec 2019: 10.63% versus 9.0%
- May/June 2019: 4.76% versus 1.70%
A framework Guo Jia used to assess Cao Cao’s strength versus Yuan Shao’s strength during the period of the three kingdom. This is an alternative measure to the modern day GDP measure which has been documented to be in use by the Chinese CCP government.
Advice to Cao Cao
- Yuan Shao is overmuch devoted to ceremony and deportment; while you are sympathetic and natural; this is an excellence in conduct.
- He is antagonistic and drives; you are conciliatory and lead; so you have the advantage of popular approval.
- For many years the government has been lax, and he makes it more so; you strive vigorously after efficiency; this is the excellence of able administration.
- He is outwardly liberal but grudging at heart, and too given to nepotism; you appear exacting, but you understand and use people after their ability; this is the advantage of correct appreciation.
- He is a visionary but lacking in decision; you are a man of prompt decision and direct action; this is an advantage in policy.
- He loves to gather about him people of renown; you treat people as you find them regardless of their reputation; this is where you excel in moral virtue.
- He is compassionate to those at hand, but careless about those out of sight; your care is all-embracing; this is where you excel in humanity.
- He lends a ready ear to calumny and is misled; you may be flooded with evil counsel, but you preserve independence; this is where you excel in perspicacity.
- His sense of right and wrong is confused; your appreciation is accurate and clear; this is where you excel in administrative capacity.
- He loves the make-believe force, but is ignorant of military essentials; you would overcome with far inferior numbers as you possess military genius; this is where you excel in war.
- The hundred year marathon, Michael Pillsbury
- Book of Wei
This post talks in detail about the technical aspects of our exit strategy
- 5% capital gain or price reaches 30 day moving average
- -2.5% capital loss
- position held more than 2 week
The central banks announced they stepped in to prop up the market if situation deteriorates with the ongoing trade war.
The world’s leading indicator
The Russell index observed to have started stabilization as recent as the 31st of May 2019
The trend followers
Down trend persisted for the Nasdaq well till 4th June 2019
Down trend persisted for the S&P 500 well till 4th June 2019
The leading indicator for Asia
The Nikkei Index closely mirrored the Russell 2000 index
Other Asian indexes
The charts for the Asian markets closely mirror the SnP charts with Singapore being most responsive amongst
The following is a list of microchip related companies to consider once the dust settles
- AVGO – Broadcom
- NVDA – Nvidia
- QCOM – Qualcomm
- INTC – Intel
- MU – Micron
- AMD – Advanced micro devises
- XLNX – Xilinx
- MCHP – Microchip Technology Inc
The following is a list of Consumer technology companies to consider once the dust settles
- WB – Weibo
- BIDU – Baidu
- TCHEY – Tencent
- BABA – Alibaba