Heavy Chinese enterprise involvement in the building of roads and houses
Shops with Chinese labels observed in operation
In areas where there are construction operations, Chinese supervision and management observed aided by local manual labor
Ubiquity of mobile internet connection
Ubiquity of Samsung, Huawei and Tenco Android mobile phones ranging from USD50 among local adult and adolescent population
With the rise of the Chinese middle class, there is now increasing domestic demand for goods and services within China. This has driven the need to increase the overall throughput volume of such commodities. It can be speculated that the level of consumption is expected to surpass the level of production within China at some point.
Economic growth in China has for now hit a road block due to the following factors:
Increased overall cost of production in China leading to less competitive exports
In light of these, China needs to start shifting its policy from an export focused economy to a domestic focused economy. To do so, it needs to feed and drive domestic demand for goods and services.
The Chinese government has been observed to enter into agreement with local African government to fund the build out of infrastructure, primarily roads and buildings. At the date of writing 85% of roads in Ethiopia has been completed within the country while in Zanzibar, Tanzania, all major roads are under construction and a sports stadium named Mao ZeDong stadium has been observed.
In exchange for the funding, local governments are restricted to engaging the service of Chinese companies. This safeguards the effectiveness of funds deployment for the operations aspects of the agreement while serving to three specific purposes. It minimizes the actual volume of liquidity that is tied up in loans to local government, while boosting demand for construction services within China and increasing maximum possible throughput volume of commodity exports from the region.
What is not obvious during the time of observation is how effective local governments are at managing funds during the stage between its receipt from China to its payment to the engaged Chinese companies. Discounting the inherent effectiveness of the various projects in driving local GDP, differing levels of corruption and maturity of national identify within the region will result in variance between actual ROI versus expected ROI for these projects.
On deciphering Chinese end goal within the region
At the moment of writing, it is yet clear how Chinese African relationship will crystalize for the future. Two key observations need to be made before we can get a glimpse of it.
Key observation #1 would be how China would react when the loans come to maturity and the local government have yet made sufficient returns from the infrastructure investments to pay off the debt.
Key observation #2 would be how Chinese companies would handle the post construction phase of projects that require ongoing maintenance in terms of knowledge transfer.
The Youth is hungry for opportunity to advance in life
The Youth is highly optimistic and have faith in their prime minister
Shifting away from a tribal centric identity to a nation identity is the key challenge for the country. Tribal warfare was observed in Matema region.
One belt one road initiative has thus far rebuilt 85% of all major highways
significant levels of Chinese operated construction observed in Addis Ababa where Chinese occupy the management layer while the locals occupy the manual layer.
Significant levels of new housing construction in villages by locals. Projects are facilitated by ease of material transport due to improved road conditions.
At the moment of writing, Chinese built daily train is in operation from Addis Ababa to Djibouti. Chinese management is in process of doing knowledge transfer to local with the intention of handing eventual management.
On nature and agriculture
mixed of highland and grassland terrain
lowlands are utilized for the cultivation of wheat, corn and coffee
highlands are utilized for the cultivation of potato and barley
Ethiopia’s own version of Uber was launched earlier this year.
Country-wide established 3G networks has been observed
Majority of people were seen using Android mobile phones like Samsung and Huawei.
Tenco is a locally manufactured Android phone ran by Chinese management. Typical phone sells for USD50.
On foreign relations with China
China is the largest trading partner where food is the main export.
China’s one belt one road initiative in Ethiopia aims to increase supplies of raw materials available to the middle class rich in China by building up critical infrastructure like roads and manufacturing facilities to increase overall throughput volume from this agriculturally fertile region.
The approach is to utilize Chinese capital, Chinese management expertise and operations technique gained from the rebuilding of their economy, local raw materials and local human labor.
Where maintenance is required knowledge transfer occurs. This serves to help conserve Chinese human capital as they further their initiative across the region.
The observed build up of educated youth will likely help facilitate the necessary knowledge to ensure infrastructure gets maintained beyond the time period of the initiative.
Individuals purely focused on maximizing return on capital through combination of commodities and human labor to generate newer forms of commodities cannot be trusted to fairly remunerate producers of human labor in a sustainable manner.
Commodities are comprised of natural resources and human productivity
Types of value that can be attributed to commodities
Use value: actualized when commodity is consumed
Exchange value: actualized when commodity is exchanged for another
There is a subset of commodity of which use value is so universal it assumes universal exchange value for every individual operating within the market overtime. A good example is gold which becomes associated with the concept of money.
Money forms with inherent use value like gold gets inevitably replaced token forms guaranteed by governments like the dollar overtime. The reason can be attributed to wear and tear of money forms like the gold coin where overtime a pound (of gold) in the form of a gold coin might not actually contain an actual pound of gold.
Accumulation of Capital can be attributed to prolonged periods of under consumption by an individual of the use value he has successfully produced and exchanged.
This doctrine was written during the time of the industrial revolution in England when the society is still in the midst of figuring out the core tenants of employment, namely standard working hours and minimal wage levels.
Majority of the population is not equipped with the necessary faculty to make decision about the running of the country. Let the superior man assume this responsibility be imbued with the power to pass laws and regulations. The market is to be subordinated to the nation.
The study of history
History should read with the use of critical lens. The student of history should approach it with the desire to understand cause and effects. He needs to apply a clear frame and extract from it relevant pieces that fits the frame to further his understanding of how the world works.
The management of the crowd
Majority of the population will not bother themselves with the use of their critical faculties when analyzing arguments made by policy makers ( Logos). Rather, they choose instead to simply really on them emotions which only takes into account very limited set of signals (Pathos).
Therefore, the primary objective of propaganda is not to be factually correct but to drive the population to action.
The structure of the message needs to be simple. The larger the audience catered for the simpler the message need to be. The use of icons and dramatic colors is extremely beneficial.
When refining your message, start with a small set of audience and work from there to gradually larger ones. This keeps running cost low and allows a more controlled cabilbration process.
This is a long drawn out intensive dubious process which is subjected to high levels of resource wastage. A centrally controlled organization will be more effective at addressing deep rooted issues. Elected leaders tends towards the dumbest common denominator.
On the economy
It should not drive national policies but should be driven by it. In the former, private interest will prevail over public needs. Private interest tends to be dominated by a class that focus purely on making money with money via interest instead of the common person that exchanges actual physical hard work with money.
The goal of schools is to socialize the next generation to the nations core values and principles. This training requires a strong physique. Physical training should take majority of the education.
The same set of raw facts can be used to construct a really positive story or a really negative one. Choose your frame wisely.
Ethics is not universal, but restricted for application only on a group. In domains where ethics don’t exist, Might means right applies.
Do not count on continued gratitude and love from the crowd. They will just as soon turn against you as they would worship you
When dealing within conflict first elicit all existing context, thereafter make your case by applying clear logic and consistent argument.
Be wary of individuals with dubious characters. If anything, you can always trust them to stay dubious.
Market is not always readily available. There needs to be willing buyers and willing sellers
The vision will stay the same while the nitty gritty details should remain flexible to cater to changes as required.
Timing is important. Some times are not conducive for specific activities while others are. The use of sacrifice /blood magic should be helpful in decipheringbthe present moment given a clear binary frame.