Good news reporting should seeks to inform rather than sensationalize with attention grabbing headlines. Its easy to appear data driven but still be misleading if you do not use the proper frame for understanding the numbers
On investment bank predictions
When on the receiving end of predictions made by external parties it is important to understand the underlying agenda they are trying to achieve. When examined thoroughly, predictions made by investment banks are so bad and contradictory, they should just stop making public declarations.
However if taking into account their objective is not to inform but to incite a trading decision by their clients so as to make a commission or offload losing positions on their trading books, it makes perfect sense.
Liar’s poker: Rising through the wreckage on Wall Street, Micheal Lewis
A company is only likely to go bankrupt if its creditors recalls debts and it is not able to pay back.
In the event of a major wide spread disaster and there is no one around to take advantage of it, it is unlikely the creditors recall debts
creditors of airlines would more likely want to have all their clients continue generating revenue with the planes to pay off debt than to foreclose of them and take back planes which are at that point worthless inventory for them
Labor unions will not want to have all their union members laid off, they will likely go into negotiations to deal with salary issues.
Ships of cruises are likely to deteriorate fast and require Capex to upkeep
Credit lines and payment schedule can always be renegotiated if impact is industry wide
If creditors are not willing to recall debts, then what would be the cause of bankruptcy? Beware of fake news that preach doom and gloom with no underlying basis
If you bought too early into the dip and you are more than half way into the dip might as well hold on for the recovery. Trying to exit too late into the dip will only cause more losses to be unnecessarily incurred.
Oil specialists are either producers or consumers, it is hard to determine the demand unless you are an insider
Wait till all the bad news are out and sentiment has turned before entering into position. Its ok to only go into position after the company share price has advanced 100% from its lowest levels.
A stroll through the peaceful streets of Rome. In contrast, it felt like the end of the world is here if you read news about Italy recently.
The human brain is a remarkable pattern recognition engine. When given incomplete information it will conjure up the “missing” pieces to generate a coherent whole that could be comprehended. More often than not what gets generated is the worst case imaginable scenario. In a normal time and age this is a wonderful function to have running automatically in the background to keep this primate alive.
However, this automatic function becomes problematic as three trends converge.
Trend 1 – big tech like Google and Facebook consolidated advertising revenue putting news entity under increasingly pressure to sustain themselves as their advertising revenue dwindled
Trend 2 – the proliferation of publication medium means anyone can now claim to be a news entity.
Trend 3 – Proliferation of Growth hacking techniques perfected by tech companies like Facebook that hijacks the human brain’s automatic fight or flight to generate user action that gets converted to revenue.
News entity generate revenue with hyper inflated news that drives readership and vitality by tapping into fear and anger. This drives wide spread panic. Corona is perfect catalyst.