Insights from Ilya

It does not pay to take on risk when the overall macro economic trend is negative.
When the yield curve occurs, a recession typically happens within 12-18 months
Bonds yield has not returned to its previous highs from its current levels of 3-4.5%
Stock still offers the highest rates of returns in the long term horizon
Shares of companies that do not produce a necessity tends to spike in late stages of a bull market
Portfolio allocation horizon
- short term portion of portfolio which you will need to access within 1 to 2 years should be placed in medium term bonds
- mid term portion of portfolio which you will need to access within 3-5 years that will likely experience at least one recession should be place partially in stocks and partially in bonds
- long term portion of portfolio which you will need to access within 10 years that will likely experience at least a few recessions should be placed fully in stocks