herd mentality dictates that the market driven by momentum will eventually over extend itself.
the herd will eventually realize its over extension and revert to mean
however momentum will once again do its work and result in over extension in the opposite direction
at times you will need to be somewhat schizophrenic by keeping in mind two equally plausible but conflicting mental models and predictions while doing your trade.
What matters most is your gain when you are right and your losses when you are wrong
When you know you are right, go for the jugular
it is the correct but non-obvious trades that generate the most outsized returns
A country with poor fundamentals, high level debts and limited foreign reserves will have limited ability in propping up its foreigns reserves much as it attempts to do so
maintaining a wide network spread across multiple territories will help in forming a better informed mental picture on the state of things
