- A company is only likely to go bankrupt if its creditors recalls debts and it is not able to pay back.
- In the event of a major wide spread disaster and there is no one around to take advantage of it, it is unlikely the creditors recall debts
- creditors of airlines would more likely want to have all their clients continue generating revenue with the planes to pay off debt than to foreclose of them and take back planes which are at that point worthless inventory for them
- Labor unions will not want to have all their union members laid off, they will likely go into negotiations to deal with salary issues.
- Ships of cruises are likely to deteriorate fast and require Capex to upkeep
- Credit lines and payment schedule can always be renegotiated if impact is industry wide
- If creditors are not willing to recall debts, then what would be the cause of bankruptcy? Beware of fake news that preach doom and gloom with no underlying basis
- If you bought too early into the dip and you are more than half way into the dip might as well hold on for the recovery. Trying to exit too late into the dip will only cause more losses to be unnecessarily incurred.
- Oil specialists are either producers or consumers, it is hard to determine the demand unless you are an insider
- Wait till all the bad news are out and sentiment has turned before entering into position. Its ok to only go into position after the company share price has advanced 100% from its lowest levels.
notes, learnings and reflections for future self reference