Chat with Punit

Private one on one chats over dinner and generally more insightful than listening to talks in conferences.

Areas of focus

Core areas of focus

  • enterprise
  • cloud
  • security
  • SaaS

Exploratory areas for growth

  • healthcare technology
  • fintech
  • gaming

Process

Starts building a model about a space before diving in. After diving in with investments further build out the model. Coefficients for the model include areas:

  • Team processes
  • Product performance metric
  • Market growth

Thoughts on FinTech

Betting on consumerization of the space as opposed to enterprise. Recent move by Charles Schwarb will not likely impact revenue of consumer apps.

Looking for startups focused on the vector that will get them into consumer wallets as well as grow to occupy a much larger portion of the consumer wallet.

When baby happens, need to get baby insurance. Then next would be Will. And then next…

Hedge funds are not suitable for VC investments. Hedge fund managers should look for other types of investors.

On security

CEOs has not much time. Prefer to high a company that is specialized in acquiring security solutions and delegate the problem to them instead. If shit hits the fan, gets to delegate blame. Companies do not remove security solutions but keep on adding on new ones. Its like a bandaid approach. Removing solutions runs the risk of causing bleeding, very dangerous. The recurring revenue is very lucrative.

When it comes to security is not a question of ability to deeply penetrate a system. Its a question of willingness to pay to penetrate the said system.

On machine learning

On public web data, building model based that is based around proven correlations – CxOs tend to leave a company before shit happens.

On offline data, putting in boxes in data centers to track traffic volume in and out of data centers to approximate demands on another company’s servers

Words on the street

VCs are increasingly concerned about governance. WeWork’s founder have basically offload USD500million dollars on the secondary market to other hedge fund managers.

On funding

If the core economic of the business does not work before funding, it will only get worst after funding. This is because the company will need to clear an even higher valuation before new investors will be profitable.

On board operations

Having a lot of big brand name VCs does not necessarily mean that you will have a good board. The board needs to be well round.  The founder needs to be able to align all the members of the board.

Expectation of the fund

Calibrate the needs of the needs of the corporate and the needs of the founders.

Expect governance to be intact. For the founders to truly execute upon what they sold when they raised the money.

Would be happy to even just double their money.

 

Launch Scale conference with Jason Calcanis Day 1

Jason Calcanis on finding investments

Jason like Money. He believes it’s the fuel that make product and services that change the world. Looks for someone understand the customer, the product and the compound annual growth rate. Usually funds USD1 million for USD25K revenue?!? Is concerned about people who are high on the entitlement spectrum. Always prefer founders who are biased towards action instead of procrastination.

When dedicated event is created for under represented demographics, the diversity of founders brought into the pipeline increases.

Always ask how much have you raised and how much did you make last month.

He ensures his operation are cost effective and looks for founders who are equally scrappy.

Stay focus. The founder needs to be relentlessly focused on consumers and product.

Happy to start the conversation when already have 3-4 customers.

Jason Calcanis on PodCast

Create 2 pod cast per week where he interview founders. He builds an audience of startup tech listeners who want to find out how other founders succeed while stroking the ego of the interviewed founders.

Experiment with selling ad placements during within podcast.

Once its been the viability has been proven, hire a sales representative to do the selling.

For every 10 emails sent out 1 company will respond. For every 10 companies that responds 1 will sign up to do an ads placement for USD7500. That equals to a USD120,000 per month cashflow with a by-product of further entrenching Jason into the angel investing network.

Donna Boyer, VP Product Stitch Fix

Always ensure process is set up to allow for inclusion Pixie Dust. A process can scale if as it includes more users, you don’t need to manage larger excel sheets.

Always keep in mind why you are doing something – the vision.

Crystal, CEO Ruby Love

A financial controller by profession. Uses the same approach for interacting with people. Never took on any personal debt.

For bootstrapping use disadvantaged as advantages. Always do the math.

Watch what you are spending on.

Understand that potential users are searching for information on the web so use SEO to acquires users free.

Ignore media coverage on the competition. Everybody has issues. Just focus on ur product and not get distracted.

Focus on you people believes in you and ignore those that don’t.

You don’t need a cofounder if you do feel you need one.

Always think bigger.

Kept the efficiency while driving revenue during the first phase. Once the organization scales you need to build up an organization. Never loss sight of your customers along the way.

Don’t hire someone to interface between you and the customer. Always understand her emotional needs. The chat window she responds 24 hours a day. That is what drives her roadmap.

Hire using Fiverr all the time. First time hire was only done after hitting USD10 million revenue.

  • Potential product video: Voice Jungle

Zander Lurie, CEO, SurveyMonkey

Markets are volatile with trade war and recession coming soon. WeWork is an Enron like environment. Companies with bad governance will be punished by the public markets. IPOs are going to pull back now.

When building the board determine what is the role of the board of directors?

  • for younger companies, maybe use them for marketing plan
  • they play fiduciary type role as you mature

Very important to build trust as the CEO. You are asking people to work for you and people to invest in you.

Founders who ask for total control of board and then subsequently blow up is a failure of governance.

We are in an environment with endless capital for great ideas.

On WeWork

USD47Billion is a valuation that requires 10 plus years of successful execution. USD1 billion is probably a more reasonable IPO valuation

VC payout 2% management fee, 20% carry. That structure requires growth. So the gross profit (revenue – operating cost) is very import.

We need to institutionalize the systematic use of listening. The web is a really efficient place for feedback to surface.

99% of in-house designs within Apple never made it to the public.

Mar Hershenson, Pear VC

Need to show that a product is really sticky amongst a pilot user instead of having a few pilot users that try and leave.

Need to come to the VC with a team with the necessary skill set to execute on

If app is changing UVP to acquire or retain a customer, it is a 0.5% criteria for seed round. The next 0.5% is showing that you have a growth engine that works.

5K-10K revenue MRR to raise USD1million round.

To show a few thousand users that have high retentions. Doing cohort analysis.

Need to have really scrappy operations and iterate fast.

Ignore fake signals

To prove if I spend $X in Ads, I will get Y number of new users and $Z increase revenue.

Series A investors do not want to have product risk. So there needs to be a strong product manager.

Growth alive. If shut down acquisition, then

3-5X growth in the next 18th months. Venture wants to be able to get investment money back within 12months.

LA trip to visit Johnson

  • Textile and clothing companies need to forecast demand to reduce inventory cost
  • Building a team is the most important thing
  • in times of volatility buy put options on VIX and long Gold
  • Small business owners
    • are supporters of protecting US businesses against intellectual property theft by Chinese companies
    • consider Chinese company methods of manipulating accounting statements fraudulent
    • consider news reported in major news networks to be fake
    • consider Democrats to have given away to many privileges to other countries thereby putting the US economy at a disadvantage
  • Real estate development
    •  Bulk of building materials are imported from China and subjected to taxation
    • put on hold until trade war is over to avoid incurring tariffs as production cost
  • Real estate hard money loans
    • usual fees
      • 2% transaction fee
      • 10% annual interest rates
    • Preferred customer fees
      • 1% transaction fee
      • 9-10% annual interest rates

Chats with Ilya on hedge funds

  • Management fees are too high to be sustainable for funds sized below 300 million
  • Funds sized above 300 million tend to have a shelf life of 10 years
  • staying motivated and dedicated to the business is hard when you already have a lot of cash
  • funds that last for a long time have founders who are absolutely focused on building up an institution that will sustain beyond the founder
  • it is much more lucrative to build and own the system than to be working in the system
  • Sharpe ratio above 1.5 is acceptable
  • SnP Sharpe ratio tends to be really low
  • important to figure out how to still generate returns in a down market
  • qualitative assessment of the business model is what drives outsized investment returns

Chat with Yi

  • Building user profile data set for machine learning purposes can be a lucrative business
  • getting an MnA guy involved to manage relationships with acquirer is helpful to tweak the company features for eventual acquisition. Once an acquirer signals intent other competitors will follow along
  • enterprise business
    • Once software is complete is about solidifying business model and supply chain
    • High revenue but potentially low margin business
    • once u get into this it’s hard to crawl out
  • Finance
    • Benchmarking negative momentum across entire industry
    • company with the slowest negative momentum in a negative environment is the one with the most resilience

Patagonia’s brilliantly executed brand positioning

This company has moved beyond selling physical products and lifestyles into the business of selling an identity.

The persona

I am youthful and vibrant, I am passionate about the great outdoors and I will fight to preserve the environment which I so much love.

My thoughts

Nowhere within this 100 page magazine was there ever a mention that Patagonia sells outdoor gears but if you identify with the persona just described above then Patagonia is your go to brand.

The company has positioned its brand at the self actualization level of the Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

Key insights from mooncake festival at house of Jerry and Liza

Technology trends

  • Companies are increasing shifting their service from one-off on premise licensing deployment monetization to cloud based SaaS recurring subscription models
    • revenue hit in the short run
    • increased customer LTV in the long run
    • affected publicly traded companies will experience short term discounts to their shares
  • Artificial intelligence versus Augmented intelligence
    • companies are increasingly shifting away from automatic insight generation to systems that help decision makers simulate and model potential outcomes when specific policies are executed
    • demand is shifting from insight generation to data cleaning services
  • Corporate adoption of artificial intelligence
    • CEOs are increasingly considering how to leverage AI as a tool for their trade
    • primary use case is figuring out how to increase their sales volume
    • experiencing challenge on how to apply AI on in-house data to achieve monetization goals
  • Rise of deep vertical data networks
    • EverString – provides sales lead refresh for all client companies ends up becoming a large database for decision-making executives information, approximately 6 million records
    • StreetSine.sg – cleans up real estate data to help agents better price houses for sale by utilizing in-house agency ends up becoming a large database of high quality real estate data
  • Crypto-currency
    • Bit coin is still the main poster child
    • general population still skeptical about libra
    • main argument is still to remove central bank controls
    • main adoption hurdles
      • writing throughput volume
      • a stable store of wealth
      • starting to be using as a means to facilitate transaction in China
      • Inability to increase or decrease currency supply in times of need is going to be hard as a means to provide much needed stimulation during economic recessions and inflations

US/China trade war

  • sources of conflict
    • technology theft
    • forced technology transfer
    • unfair trade practices like subsidized state owned Chinese companies operating in the export markets
  •  economy
    • China is experiencing inflationary deleveraging
      • local farmers are not growing critical food sources
      • critical food supplies are imported
      • price of imported goods are denominated in US reserve currency
      • shifting of supply chain out of China to
        • Vietnam
        • India
        • Taiwan
      • capital flight
        • Li Ka Shing moved funds out from Hong Kong in 2013 to Europe
        • raising funds for US Venture capital from China was easy prior to Chinese and US government shut down
    • US is experiencing deflationary deleveraging
      • businesses are concerned about macro environment and are reducing fixed investments
      • manufacturing is slowing due to decreased demand both locally and overseas
      • consumer spending and confidence is still strong
  • Chinese domestic concerns
    • Potential US meddling in Chinese domestic affairs – Hong Kong’s demonstration and demands
      • Revoking of National Education
      • Revoking of extradition bill
      • Resignations of HK Chief executive
      • universal suffrage: freedom to elect their own leaders
    • destabilized situation presents a challenge for Xi JinPing’s party to retain control of power over former Jian Zemin’s faction
  • value system
    • US is a highly rule based system
    • China’s system of control is highly subjective to the individual in power.  Direct government intervention in the distribution of wealth is a major source of concern

US/Mexico and world issues

  • NAFTA agreement was too one side and failed to take into account large  imbalance between the two economies
  • US’s arrangement of allowing Mexican tax payers the right to claim dependents ultimately resulted into tax claims and refunds for entire extended families in Mexico. This has the effect of subsidizing Mexican’s at the expense of Americans living along the rust belts
  • Its observed income inequality is becoming prevalent across the entire world not just within US and China.

Related readings

The American Factory

Context

FuYao is a Chinese manufacturing company that products glass for automobiles companies:

  • Honda
  • Toyota
  • Hyundai

The company setup a factory in Dayton Ohio in 2013 to take advantage of the abundant supply of cheap skilled labor in the region resultant of the 2008 recession.

Overarching trends

  • globalization continues to apply downward pressure of wage growth around the world for commoditized labor
  • automation continues to eliminate entire categories of jobs around the world

In depth analysis of FuYao Glass America

The opening of a plant in the new country can be seen as a acquisition of sorts.  Acquisition activities is considered a merge of the following components:

  • Culture
  • Process
  • Assets

In this case, it could be seen as a merging of FuYao’s culture and process with Dayton Ohio’s asset which is cheap skilled labor.

Below are the key conflicts with the merger

  • highly structured and propagandized environment (Chinese) versus loosely structured and casual environment (USA)
  • processes built around social norms in a weak union environment (China) versus social norms from a strong union environment (USA)
  • productivity and throughput focused paradigm (Chinese) versus safety and family focused paradigm (USA)
  • workers paid USD29/hr when working for GM before it shuttered are now paid USD17/hr under FuYao
  • governor and grassroots were encouraging unionization to encourage more say American say in the running of the plan

Key transitions

  • removal of locally hired senior management (USA) with Chinese senior management (USA) for effective implanting of culture within company
  • battling against worker unionization

David Letterman interview with Barack Obama

 

Leaders impact is more on shaping the attitudes more so than setting legislations

Income inequality caused by globalization and technology has eliminated  entire categories of jobs. Wealthy people with excess money to invest due to this aggregation of wealth at the top seeks to maximize their wealth by investing in more and more kinds of financial instruments to return generates. This in turn creates bubbles.

Cost of health care and college education continues to rise as corporate America continues to optimize its monetization engine.

Online media channel consolidation and structural deepening of algorithmic social media newsfeed (Facebook and Twitter) continues to drive polarization of views.  The media is primarily geared towards eliciting a response so as to drive conversion rate instead of helping audience develop well rounded perspectives on social issues through holistic presentation of facts.

Key insights from weekend with Jerry, Liza, Ada and Dan

On US/China trade war

  • 25% tariff basically wiped out whatever profit margin importing from China could bring
  • China’s labor cost have been increasing over the past few years that it is no longer a competitive advantage
  • China’s main advantage is the expertise they built up over the years. A company can easily spin up 25 manufacturing lines in China very quickly
  • US companies are all rapidly shifting their manufacturing activities out of China
  • New locations are Taiwan, India and Vietnam
  • Chinese staff that were retained by Google are now flying to new manufacturing facilities spun up in these countries to oversee the spin up process

On alternate data

  • Real estate
    • the rise  of platforms like AirBnB has lead investors to seek out alternate data that can help predict short term rental yield as opposed to long term rental yield in a neighborhood
    • government agencies are seeking such data to detect neighborhoods where they should focus their efforts to crack down illegal subletting on AirBnB
  • Sports
    • being able to predict strategy coaches of football teams will employ in real time will help support strategies
    • being able to predict starting line in close to real time and the corresponding outcomes will be valuable for coaches in making play decisions

On HongKong/China protest

  • Public opinion is the agenda for the ongoing protest is now getting really murky
  • Airport has stopped operations, it’s hard to even get in and out of the country
  • Foreign Chinese nationals are supportive of protest in HongKong
  • Topics pertaining to Taiwan, Tibet and TianAnMen massacre are sensitive topics amongst mainland Chinese
  • Funds of funds from Hong Kong are still very liquid