Single man flying suites: The future is here

We are now a few stages before single man flying suites become commercially available for the masses. In this stage of the technology life cycle, it is common to see multiple companies coming up with their own working prototype.

In the next stage, some number of companies will figure out the business model and marketing channels while a lot more will fail. Many of the viable ideas and employees from these failed companies will get absorbed into the surviving companies.

The final stage would be when the manufacturing gets outsourced to China. During this stage, cost of production will drop by 10X. That is when adoption gains traction amongst the early majority .

The stage after would be when government steps in to define regulations for proper use in public.

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#business #manufacturing #innovation #supplychain

Advice from Johnson on fund raising

Entrepreneurship is much like playing competitive basketball where it is becomes more mental competition and less physical competition as the game wears on. There will be phases during the fund raising process when you get so much external rejections and internal failed experiments that you starting thinking “am I just being a con-artist” when entering into the next fund raising session.

The real work of the entrepreneur is the mental exercise. Do not let external rejections and internal failed experiments cause your conviction to waver. Let the investor deal with their job (where to park their cash) and the management deal with theirs (how to use the cash). Your job one and only job is to convince the investor to part with his cash so that you can pass it to the manager to use the cash.

Do not confuse the roles of Entrepreneur, Management and Shareholders

  • Entrepreneur: role is to acquire external resources required to grow the company
  • Shareholder: role is to keep watch over security of the capital invested and have it grow
  • Management: role is to ensure the externally acquired resources get put to proper use with minimal wastage

When in fund raising mode, do not emotionally entangle yourself with “being accountable/responsible” for the funds that will be acquired externally to be put to good use internally. Just dealing with all the multitudes of external rejections during the fund raising exercise is in itself already a Herculean chore. There is no reason to self-sabotage by causing yourself to waver from your conviction by further introduction of self doubt during this critical process.

There is a difference between marketing the product and marketing the company. Products are marketed to customers while the company is marketed to the investors. The three classes of investors:

  • Angel investors – buy the story
  • Venture Capitalist – structured as a fund to ensure compliance with governance
  • Private Equity – late stage fund to get the company ready for IPO
  • Public offering – the general public as well as trust funds

The important thing during fund raising is to rapidly filter out the naysayers and frame a story that will excite the remaining investors to want to part with their cash. Do not waste time with the naysayers.

It is unlikely that you will be able to haul in all the capital you need in one shot. Just figure what story you need to tell to the next person to pull in the resources necessary to snowball the idea bigger and repeat that process until the entire idea gets fully realized.

Ideas/ brain child a fragile creatures that need to be protected and nurtured by the founder.

People who started companies but only have experience working in technical functions will under appreciate the importance of story telling. These companies will ultimately fail. They do not see all the marketing the partners in the company did to get it off the ground initially. People who started companies but do not attempt to build up the company in fear of failing are people simply just trying to find a job for themselves. They are not entrepreneurs but self employed.

The reason why entrepreneurs like to hang out with other entrepreneurs is that they feed off each others energy. And that is crucial for the mental game that they have to deal will on a daily basis. The most classic example is Steve Job’s reality distortion field.

There is one fundamental difference between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. Jeff Bezos is from the investment banking background, since series A he constantly tweaks his story to the tune of the market to get the resources the company he require. Whereas, Elon Musk was so strong in his belief and charisma that right out the gates he was able to create a cult following around his company while polarizing all the naysayers. These two approaches are reflected in their companies share prices with Tesla being really really turbulent.

Weekend insights with Jerry and Liza

On the drop shipping market segment

Drop shipping segments – homogenous or differentiated products.

Africa e-commerce is a strong trend.

Value of a software company is how deeply it goes into implementing support for a use case.

Fund raising and valuation

The story and business case determines how valuable a company will become.

There are more investors chasing after limited number of experienced founders. This explains the reason for ultra high valuation.

PR and personal network helps generate warm introduction to VCs

Investors are biased towards founders who graduated from prestigious universities

The best founders are those who are willing to slog working on the same problem day after day without giving up.

On human resourcing

Engineers from second or third tier universities tend to be better hires. They have less feelings of entitlement and are more likely to have background of hardships and struggles.

The sales process:

  • Step one: generate sales lead list – GetData.IO’s core competency in web scraping means we do not need to by databases but just find websites where leads exists. Hunter.IO is a good service for resolving email addresses of companies
  • Step two: outreach – AB testing outreach email messages
    • GDPR dictates that only work emails are allowed for such campaigns
    • Utilize Calendarly to schedule meetings
    • At this point emails to closing rate is around 1%
    • Find iteration that drive opens, reads and appointment scheduling
    • Figure out the email cadence
    • Once that has been locked down start automating it using sales automaton tools like
      • PersistIQ
      • SalesLoft
  • Step 3: follow up conversation
    • Craft up sales script to close through iteration
    • Find out all the different variation of rejections
    • Learn how to manage them
  • Step 4: closing
    • Learn about actual enterprise problem
    • Learn about budget
    • Find a price level that works.
  • Step 5: Onboarding
    • Deploy success team to onboard the customers
    • Successfully onboarded customers will be more likely to retain and less likely to churn.

Industrial benchmarks for cold emails

  • email open rate: 15%
  • open to click through rate: 2%
  • landing page to booking a meeting: 5%
  • book a meeting from cold lead: 0.0015%
  • USD0.03 per lead = USD100 to book a meeting ( 0.01 / 0.0015% )
  • Versus Google = (USD1 CPC / 5% ) = USD20 to book a meeting

GDPR does not allow use of personal emails for cold email campaign.

Lead generation process

  • Buy databases to fill the top of the funnel for cold email campaigns.
  • Buy ads to fill up the funnel from Google and Facebook

An evening of insights with the Hutters

The optimized route for a startup is to first deploy a small skeleton crew to focus on mining for the insights on human behavior with cheap experiments that will support a viable business model before raising money and scaling up the operations.

Big organizations tend to forget the insights that lead to the founding of the company. That is how large companies get disrupted by new entrants who “rediscover” them.

If there is a company out there that is solving a problem you are trying to find a solution for but you cannot think of it off the top of your head, they might as well have been dead.

What you think might work will usually not. It is only when you land up in a promising domain and start mining for insights in that domain do you start finding ones that are useful for building a company with.

Screenwriting is probably the only occupation where you can envision how all the moving pieces fits together while you are lying in bed. Writing a business plan is a very useless undertaking because unless you have tested your business model to get actual market response, you will not know if it would work or not work. This is much of other inductive processes where much of the building blocks required to work are out there in the environment yet know and to be discovered.

Do not be fixated on what should but be instead embrace on what is and work for there when it comes to human nature.

Humans are motivated beyond pain and pleasure.

No one has considered hyperlinks themselves as important data elements.

It is usually the simplest actions backed by the most fundamental insights that drives the largest consumer adoption.

People feel that sense of accomplishment when they gather stuff thanks to our hunter gathering roots. They might not even need it at the end of the day.

Social book marking just died when most of their operators pivoted away from the central idea in 2005

  • Stumble upon
  • Digg
  • Reddit
  • Pintrest
  • Trello

The mass adoption of Slack and Quip might be a great channel for growing such an idea again but for the enterprise space.

The success of YouTube can be speculated to be due to:

  • In baked flash media code into browsers
  • Increase in bandwidth
  • Delaying the payment of royalty fees and taking down of copyrighted contents
  • They got sold for 1.2billion but paid of 750million in terms of royalties

Mark Cuban is a fake billionaire for selling Real networks to AOL which eventually got shut down after six months. Reason for Real Network being empty is because while it looking really impressive on the outside, it did not capture any of the user behaviors.

People only build shared reality with others they consider part of their own tribe. They might interact with others who are not considered part of their own tribe but will not go about building a shared reality with them. This is how echo chambers happen.

Related readings

  • Tory Higgins, “Beyond Pleasure and Pain: How Motivation Works”
  • Tory Higgins, “Shared Reality”

Observations at the heart of Permian basin

Office for the day. A proxy of view into the heart of the Permian basin as I get my car wheels aligned

The level of auto traffic along the Cedar Street, Pecos Texas is a very clear proxy on the health status of the US Oil industry.

Factors negatively impacting economic activities in the area:

  • US Elections: Oil companies operating in area put activities on hold awaiting for forthcoming mandate
  • Holidays: Demand for oil drops
  • COVID pandemic: Demand for oil drops

Responsiveness of lagging indicators:

  • Lag time between events and lagging indicators within the region is typically 24 hours
  • Layoffs can happen within 24 hours of environment triggers
  • Rapid hiring can happen within 24 hours of environment trigger
  • On occasions, rapid hiring and layoffs could happen simultaneously in different sectors

Qualitative background:

On mornings during times of Economic boom in the Oil industry, the Pilot center across the street could be observe lined with trucks rushing to fuel up as they go about transporting out their cargo to their destinations.

On such days, the empty parking lot in front of Custom Mufflers Tire Repair center could be seen filled up with trucks getting their wheels serviced.

With the election of President Biden, a bill was past that totally stopped all oil and gas related activities in New Mexico. This has resulted in the damping of traffic heading north along Cedar Street for the foreseeable future.

 

Observed second and third order impact of GameStop frenzy on market stability

Investment Funds market exposure strategies can be categorized primarily into three types.

Type 1: Long only strategy: funds that buy and hold positions.

Type 2: Short only strategy: funds that primarily borrow and short shares

Type 3: Market neutral strategy: funds that hold half their position in long and half their positions in short attempting to gain from some form of arbitrage between performers and losers.

To increase profit funds would typically be leveraged. Levels of leverage is dependent on how aggressive each individual fund is. Long Term Capital Management for example, a fund that went bankrupt in 1998, was leveraged up to 20X for some of its positions.

During a recent frenzy co-ordinated efforts by Redditers bid up prices of stock symbols like GameStop and AMC. From a fund management perspective, funds belonging to Type 2 and Type 3 were heavily impacted by this black swan event. As losses in their short positions mounted, many received margin calls from their lenders.

It is likely that Type 3 unwinded the bulk of their long positions to cover their margin calls. This had the net impact of driving down share prices of other unrelated stock symbols as observed in the US Equities sell off chart above.

Depressed share prices due to the unwinding of long positions by Type 3 lead to a follow on cascading effect where Type 1 had to unwind their leveraged long position.

This large scale unwinding activity could be inferred from the inverted yield curve observed on 31st Jan 2021. This inversion could also be interpreted as funds opting to maintain liquidity levels by moving heavily into positions like short term US Treasury and cash as they await for the market gyration to settle.

The last time the yield curve was observed to be extremely inverted was on 26th Feb 2020, during the initial onset of the COVID-19, pandemic as illustrated below

That was rectified when the Federal reserve lowered interest rates to 0% and started quantitative easing on 13th March 2020.

General thoughts of training trading bot

  • regime change occurs on the average every 3 months and the model gets outdated.
  • early signs of outdated model includes consistent non-commit signals
  • initial changes to trading parameters will tend to yield poor initial outcomes.
  • Good outcomes will require time to play itself out
  • Buying on the MACD bullish reversal tends to be too late in a volatile market. Potential gains from the reversal would have most likely played out by then
  • Drastically reducing number of outstanding positions leads to inefficiency of capital deploy as capital is left idling around with a bullish trend plays itself out
  • Explore buying when negative MACD trend slows down.

Key lessons learned from 2020 coronavirus sell offs – DONT TALK ABOUT TRADING

  • Key weakness of my profile Yang Wood Day Master profile
    • easily confused when provided with too much conflicting social signals
    • slow in decision making process
    • recommendations: avoid unnecessary conversations and stick to simple system that works
  • Do not enter into positions until SPY MACD bullish crossover occurs.
  • Practice “Let’s not talk about trading”
    • When people ask how you pay for your expenses, just reply money from parents.
    • When people send messages about trading related stuff just don’t reply
    • Too many inputs from unqualified personnels creates confusion in the mind leads to bad decision
    • Arguments is a time sink, creates a lot of unnecessary stress, drains will power, emotional and mental strengths. This leads to poor decision making when it matters
    • Wasting time explaining the obvious to people does not lead to me having more money in my pocket whereas giving people wrong info leads to bad relationships later on.
    • Set positions and forget
    • Do not waste time debating about news on social networks. It leads to hurt feels amongst friends and relatives.
    • No point reading news as bulk of the macro signals are already reflected in the prices of index by SPY. It does not generate profit.
    • Don’t attempt to derive satisfaction and self-worth from trading profits. If you feel good now you will probably feel like shit later when profits start diving
    • Do not talk about profits made during trades, makes others who did not make that money feel bad about themselves.
    • Do not talk about losses made during trades, provides others the opportunity to make you feel even worse with their useless feedbacks.

Related references